Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 2.260804 2.375436 2.497811 2.639108 2.798989 2.975822 3.188426
2025-04-06 2.057148 2.206441 2.373495 2.577143 2.822964 3.116266 3.503226
2025-04-13 1.933429 2.101321 2.295071 2.540244 2.850413 3.242934 3.803125
2025-04-20 1.874447 2.061157 2.282683 2.572933 2.957343 3.474357 4.280229
2025-04-27 1.843809 2.049644 2.300358 2.640239 3.111999 3.789959 4.964028
2025-05-04 1.790618 2.005317 2.271608 2.641449 3.172886 3.977171 5.501549
2025-05-11 1.745262 1.967157 2.246787 2.643692 3.232642 4.170001 6.125391
2025-05-18 1.682135 1.902712 2.183135 2.586057 3.195084 4.193995 6.410387
2025-05-25 1.643116 1.867157 2.155286 2.576063 3.228238 4.344070 7.061666
2025-06-01 1.605813 1.831919 2.125582 2.560529 3.249837 4.475988 7.755667
2025-06-08 1.569877 1.796847 2.094111 2.539760 3.259947 4.587078 8.482529
2025-06-15 1.552446 1.785321 2.094020 2.565089 3.348908 4.875090 10.151333
2025-06-22 1.509874 1.739660 2.045747 2.516220 3.308610 4.888581 10.802052
2025-06-29 1.468148 1.693986 1.995914 2.462532 3.255738 4.866822 11.309543
2025-07-06 1.435453 1.659490 1.960517 2.429273 3.236498 4.919895 12.379629
2025-07-13 1.424230 1.653619 1.965292 2.458939 3.334645 5.279700 16.890286
2025-07-20 1.422740 1.660802 1.988836 2.519851 3.499656 5.880139 34.144023
2025-07-27 1.404367 1.643922 1.976435 2.520945 3.547385 6.174595 84.656037
2025-08-03 1.387295 1.628275 1.965129 2.522972 3.597137 6.500160 NaN
2025-08-10 1.356583 1.592715 1.923058 2.470832 3.528230 6.404691 NaN
2025-08-17 1.338695 1.574768 1.906732 2.461777 3.550505 6.642797 NaN
2025-08-24 1.320357 1.555707 1.888079 2.447696 3.560478 6.844217 NaN
2025-08-31 1.301633 1.535648 1.867289 2.428854 3.558145 7.000930 NaN